PSEI October 28, 2016
PSEI slides further down for the fourth consecutive time this week diving to 7,317 and finally closing at 7,404.8 points, traders were on a selling pressure today ahead of the 4-day holiday next week due to celebration of All-saints day.
PSEI may continue its downward momentum this week due to lingering selling pressure but may tread sideways into 7500-7400 range, opening in Wednesday should not go below 7,400 to hold initial support.
In addition, here are the top things to consider next week:
- US 3Q GDP of 2.9%
This was the biggest GDP gain in two years since 2014 and may prompt the FED to strengthen its stance in raising the rate the 2nd time. FED is unlikely to raise rates this November because of the upcoming US presidential election. We're still waiting for the core inflation and FED's announcement in Thursday.
- GLOBAL Stocks down, rise in GLOBAL Bonds
As the certainty of a FED hike this December is looming, Treasury yield bonds rose to their highest level which in turn boosted USD.
- Oil prices edged lower
Oil prices edged lower on Friday and were set for the biggest weekly losses in six weeks over doubts about whether oil producers will be able to agree on an output cut big enough to curb a global glut that has weighed on markets for two years. ©reuters
- PH Companies 3Q Earnings report
A lot of companies are already submitting their 3Q FS and we may expect more this week.
- Result of Duterte's trip to Japan
The trip yielded a $1.8 Billion deal which can gain a positive feedback on investors sentiment. This can ease the worry on most investors about the Philippines cutting ties on US and losing a lot of trade deals. Moreover, Japanese integrated trading and investment business conglomerate Marubeni Corporation also intends to provide US $17.2 billion dollars for several projects. ©gma
Happy Halloween, and stay safe this Holiday. GLHF.
PSEI - Things to consider next week (Oct 24-28)
PSEI closed lower to end at 7,650.22 as investors cash out gain from the previous rally. Noting however that foreign trades still ended up at net buying of 236.02M, although the index ended up on a selling pressure.
PSEI may still trend sideways this week on a downward bias, based on a technical perspective as EMA13(fast) is still on an upward trend and MACD just made its golden cross
Here are the things you need to know that could affect our PSEI next week:
1. Philippine Companies 3rd Quarter Reports
Deadline is still far ahead but many companies are already submitting their 3rd quarter FS, so we need to watch out for that. Most investors are already positioning their trades as they bet to a strong 3rd quarter earnings report.
2. Global Stocks/US Stocks
Most index follows the trend of US stocks major indices as the 3rd quarter earnings show strong reports on blue chip companies, many investors are at ease to know that the worlds largest economy is posting better than expected earnings. Add to that is the European Central Bank decision of not changing its policy until December.
3. USD & US Economic datas
Many investors are waiting for the 3rd Quarter weekly jobless claims this Friday along with other US economic data. Although based on reuters poll chances of FED rate hike is still at 60% chance as most policy makers would not hike in November because of the upcoming presidential election.
4. Oil
Oil slips down by 1% as traders cashed out gains from previous rallies.
5. Duterte
A lot happened this week with PRRD's visit to China, the latest is the cutting of ties with the US as the PRRD aligns with China, and the awaited meeting of Japan's PM Abe with PRRD on Thursday as they talk about US alliances.
© sa owner ng pic
There are still a lot of factors that could affect the index but I can't possibly cover them all. These are just my takes, and I could be wrong. GLHF.
PSEI may still trend sideways this week on a downward bias, based on a technical perspective as EMA13(fast) is still on an upward trend and MACD just made its golden cross
Here are the things you need to know that could affect our PSEI next week:
1. Philippine Companies 3rd Quarter Reports
Deadline is still far ahead but many companies are already submitting their 3rd quarter FS, so we need to watch out for that. Most investors are already positioning their trades as they bet to a strong 3rd quarter earnings report.
2. Global Stocks/US Stocks
Most index follows the trend of US stocks major indices as the 3rd quarter earnings show strong reports on blue chip companies, many investors are at ease to know that the worlds largest economy is posting better than expected earnings. Add to that is the European Central Bank decision of not changing its policy until December.
3. USD & US Economic datas
Many investors are waiting for the 3rd Quarter weekly jobless claims this Friday along with other US economic data. Although based on reuters poll chances of FED rate hike is still at 60% chance as most policy makers would not hike in November because of the upcoming presidential election.
4. Oil
Oil slips down by 1% as traders cashed out gains from previous rallies.
5. Duterte
A lot happened this week with PRRD's visit to China, the latest is the cutting of ties with the US as the PRRD aligns with China, and the awaited meeting of Japan's PM Abe with PRRD on Thursday as they talk about US alliances.
 |
| © sa owner ng pic |
There are still a lot of factors that could affect the index but I can't possibly cover them all. These are just my takes, and I could be wrong. GLHF.
PSEI October 19, 2016
PSEI continued its rally to close at 7,721.57, as it continue to climb back at 7,800 range. We can expect the index to inch a little higher to trade back at 7,800 if it can sustain the rally and break it's first resistance, failure to do so will prompt PSEI to trade sideways at 7,600-7,700 range.
PSEI rally can be attributed to China's expected GDP result of 6.7% which ease investors worry about the world 2nd largest economy (paired with increased inflation data last week), along with PRRD visits to china that gained a very optimistic view.
Moody's rating also added to PSEI's rally and the high chance of FED rate hike happening until December fueled its bullish trend.
The trend may continue tomorrow until Friday as investors are likely to cash out gain from the rally.
Side note: MACD just made it's golden cross, aroon indicator shows a change in trend, and net foreign volume shows net buying after two weeks of net selling.
Will update again on Friday on what to watch out next week.
Charts: Investagrams.com
PSEI October 14, 2016
PSEI closed higher as investors bargain hunt when the index drops to near 7,300 yesterday.
 |
| PSEI as of October 14, 2016 y-o-y chart with fib retracement |
Here are the things to watch out for this weekend that may fuel the PSEI to further extend it's rally next week:
1. China's higher inflation data.
As the worlds 2nd biggest economy the rise of inflation data for the first time in five years helped Asian stocks rebound from the slumps yesterday.
"Asian stocks and the dollar bounced on Friday, erasing some losses from the previous day, as stronger-than-expected Chinese inflation data eased some concerns about the health of the world’s second-biggest economy."
**In view of recent events specially the visit of PRRD to China along with 200 businessman, I would also like to add this in things that could affect the PSEI. A good feedback will likely boost the rally we have this week.(Updated 10/19/2016)
2. Yellen Speech
All ears on Yellen's speech at Boston today, looking for stronger clues for a rate hike this December.
3. Oil prices
Oil just extended its gain above $52 because of cut in US supply. Big factor for our energy sector which couldfuel up the rally of PSEI this week.
4. US and Japan better earnings data
Investors love better earnings, it makes them feel safe to invest.
There are more things to watch over the weekend but these are my top things that a trader should be aware, if PSEI opens in green on Monday then we can expect to be trading back at 7,500 area.
As the worlds 2nd biggest economy the rise of inflation data for the first time in five years helped Asian stocks rebound from the slumps yesterday.
"Asian stocks and the dollar bounced on Friday, erasing some losses from the previous day, as stronger-than-expected Chinese inflation data eased some concerns about the health of the world’s second-biggest economy."
**In view of recent events specially the visit of PRRD to China along with 200 businessman, I would also like to add this in things that could affect the PSEI. A good feedback will likely boost the rally we have this week.(Updated 10/19/2016)
2. Yellen Speech
All ears on Yellen's speech at Boston today, looking for stronger clues for a rate hike this December.
3. Oil prices
Oil just extended its gain above $52 because of cut in US supply. Big factor for our energy sector which couldfuel up the rally of PSEI this week.
4. US and Japan better earnings data
Investors love better earnings, it makes them feel safe to invest.
There are more things to watch over the weekend but these are my top things that a trader should be aware, if PSEI opens in green on Monday then we can expect to be trading back at 7,500 area.
PSEI October 12, 2016
PSEI 1 year chart on Fibonacci Retracement
So will it close the gap and slide further down? Probably yes. If this breach 7,300 today then it may slide further to 7,100-7,300 range. Big factor of pulling PSEI down would be the World Stock Market movement, this includes the weak China data, the coming speech of Yellen this Saturday and even the death of King Bhumibol can fuel the downward momentum of PSEI. Many investors are already pulling out their stocks and on a wait-and-see mode few months ago, mainly due to the certainty of a FED rate hike, and now that a December rate hike is on the table fund managers and investors alike are already cashing out gains from PSEI previous rally.
_________________________________________________________________________________
PSEI October 12, 2016
PSEI is apparently on a downtrend, mainly due to strong USD and the decline of all shares worldwide including the US Stock market nosedive. Biggest factor is the higher expectation of a FED rate hike this September, which is according to latest poll, is at 70% probability already. USD index is on its highest level for 7 months as investors put their money back on the safe haven and away from emerging markets like our PSEI.
PSEI should not go below 7,300 points and may go sideways below 7,500 range.
PSEI is still on a selling pressure and still on a bearish MACD cross. Investors are still waiting for the result of FED's policy meeting to get clues if December rate hike is certain.
No comments:
Post a Comment